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  1. 爱看小说
  2. 思考的威力原文
  3. 博弈策略

博弈策略（第3页）

天才一秒记住【爱看小说】地址：https://www.antiquessd.com

毁德国的几架飞机或几艘潜艇必然导致前线物资的中断。

目标不明确或行动中途为了一些小事情而忽略了目标，情况就会变得非常糟糕。

温德尔·威尔基曾于1940年与富兰克林·罗斯福对垒，参加总统竞选。

威尔基

极富感召力，机智、勇敢，竞选能力强，对手罗斯福又有一个不利因素——美国有

总统不能连任三届的传统。

然而，威尔基白天乘着火车在一个个小站向数千群众

发表动人的讲话，每次都有几百人听得心悦诚服，过来同他握手。

到一天结束时，

他已疲惫不堪，声音全哑了。

当他在竞选临近结束时上电台向千百万人发表讲话

时，嗓子只能嘎嘎地断断续续吐出一些字句。

这就是说，威尔基高兴之时忘记了自

己的目标是竞选总统，是向全美人民发表讲话，而不仅仅是向有限的人民讲话，不

仅仅是取得有限人的支持和高兴，所以，他失败了。

因此，目标必须明确，并时时提

醒自己不要偏离目标，一切行为都要为目标服务。

探索和拟定各种可能的备选方案

目标明确之后就要围绕目标寻找各种可能的方案，并尽可能安全。

因为每一

种可能的方案都有可能成为最后的决策。

众多的备选方案是针对实际行为中可能

出现的情况而制定的，在进行对比分析、组合、概率分析以及心理分析之后，方可

选中某一方案作为最后方案。

在对待复杂事物时，要想使可能方案完备不太可能，使最后方案达到最理想

状态也是不太可能的。

就像一个人，按医学的要求，他身上的各类元素达到一定的

量才是最理想、最健康的，但是这种人是不存在的，只存在于温室中。

因为，一旦现

实的人身上的各类要素均达到医学中最理想的要求，他就不是一个现实的人，而

是各类要素的堆积。

但是，全面性的要求和努力可以防止下列两种倾向：

①避免以偏概全、以次充好。

我们虽然达不到理想状态，但向理想状态的努力

却可以得到令我们最为满意的结果。

比如，我们在某任务中确定了理想方案，但在

执行时可能出现偏差，可能因为某一方的整体中各个个体的实力都不如对方而失

败。

但是，如果真是这样，失败的一方也较为满足，因为它选择了最好的方案，也执

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